精益化物流管理对药品供应仓储能力及药品周转时间的影响

目的探讨精益化物流管理对药品供应仓储能力及药品周转时间的影响。方法回顾性分析2013年8月至2014年7月中山大学附属第三医院粤东医院传统物流管理模式下的药品管理情况,以及2014年8月至2015年7月施行精益化物流管理模式后的药品管理情况。比较分析两种模式下的药品缺货率、仓储能力及药品周转时间情况。结果精益化物流管理下的A、B、C类药品所占实际面积与传统物流管理比较下降19.25%,总量增加9.86%;精益化物流管理下的A、B、C类药品周转率高于传统物流管理,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);精益化物流管理下的A、B、C类药品周转时间短于传统物流管理,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论精益化物流管理模式可显著提升医院药品供应仓储能力,缩短药品周转时间,从而可提升药品管理整体水平,为医院带来效益,为患者提供高质量药品服务。     

国际研发合作对 全球价值链分工地位的影响 ——基于吸收能力的门槛效应

基于知识吸收能力的视角，从理论和实证上考察国际研发合作对全球价值链分工地位攀升的作用及其门槛变量的影响。研究结果表明：在控制其他变量的基础上，国际研发合作能够显著地促进全球价值链分工地位攀升。进一步地，国际研发合作对全球价值链分工地位的影响还要受到经济体吸收能力的影响，要素禀赋、金融发展、人力资本、研发能力及制度环境等吸收能力分项维度对国际研发合作与全球价值链分工地位之间的关系具有显著的门槛调节效应。在全球研发网络和全球产业价值链加速融合的背景下，研究结论对中国企业通过选择国际合作研发策略、嵌入全球研发创新网络、强化知识吸收能力以进一步提升企业国际竞争力具有重要的启示意义。     

人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响及政策挑战——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

人工智能的发展是生产力进步的表现，但广泛使用人工智能技术的经济效应尚待深入研究。基于人工智能对劳动的替代作用，将人工智能投资引入动态随机一般均衡模型，通过比较静态分析和短期动态分析考察人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响。稳态分析表明：人工智能投资效率提高和使用范围扩大均会提升劳动生产率进而提高产出水平，但对长期或趋势通胀没有影响；在人工智能发展初级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资下降，而在相对高级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资上升。短期动态分析显示：人工智能发展水平的提高，无论是投资效率的提高还是使用范围的扩大，都会导致通胀及实际边际成本对偏好冲击和技术冲击等外生冲击的反应变弱。人工智能的发展会使通胀动态与实际经济活动变化间的联系减弱，其原因是人工智能对劳动的替代作用使工资调整不再是应对外生冲击的必然选择，进而改变了外生冲击通过影响工资来影响通胀的传导机制。因此，发展人工智能在促进生产率提升和产出增长的同时，还会改变宏观经济变量间的传导机制，进而对通胀等政策调控目标变量的准确预测以及政策调整和实施的有效性带来新的挑战，也为金融理论研究提出新的课题。     

Profitability and Efficiency of High Nature Value Marginal Farming in England

The UK Brexit vote triggered a new wave of policy developments for a future outside the EU. In this context, we analyse the business performance of English hill and upland farms, characterised by marginal economic conditions but also high nature value (HNV). The analysis aims to help identify farm-level management and policy options for greater economic, environmental and social sustainability. Business performance is measured as technical efficiency and the occurrence and persistence of abnormal profits, estimated through stochastic frontier analysis and static and dynamic panel-data methods. The results help indicate rationales for recent trends including farm enlargement, farm family diversification, and agri-environment scheme entry. The single farm payment is found to be negatively associated with farm technical efficiency while agri-environmental subsidies were positively associated to short-term farm profitability. Farm adaptation and resilience during a period of likely turbulence in external circumstances is discussed in light of these findings, as well as potential parallels with marginal HNV areas across Europe.     

黑龙江省生态足迹分析及ARIMA模型预测

为了解黑龙江省生态可持续发展问题,对黑龙江省生态足迹进行分析,并寻求动态预测结果。运用生态足迹模型对黑龙江省2000~2015年的人均生态足迹和生态承载力进行测算,在此基础上选用ARIMA模型,并结合使用Eviews软件对未来10年人均生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测。研究结果表明2000~2015年间黑龙江省人均生态足迹一直不断增加,人均生态承载力呈现波动缓慢上升的趋势,生态系统处于不安全状态;2016~2025年黑龙江省人均生态足迹仍然持续增大,虽然人均生态承载力也缓慢上升,但人均生态赤字仍然越来越大,黑龙江省生态安全面临巨大挑战。     

家庭农场经营效率及其差异分析*——基于山东234个示范家庭农场的调查

[目的]文章通过对山东省家庭农场经营效率的实证分析,旨在厘清技术、规模对农场经营效率的促进作用,通过比较分析找出各类型家庭农场短板,针对性地提出政策建议。[方法]以山东234个家庭农场数据为例,运用DEA模型对家庭农场全样本及纯种植、种养结合、种植兼休闲、种养兼休闲4类家庭农场的经营效率进行了测算和分解。[结果]首先,家庭农场综合技术效率仅为0. 170,纯技术效率和规模效率分别为0. 235和0. 786,规模效率相对充分纯技术效率不足是经营效率较低的主要原因;其次,种养结合类农场发展势头较好,纯种植类家庭农场发展滞后且综合技术效率和纯技术效率最低,种养兼休闲类农场的规模效率最低。[结论] 4类农场差异明显,应降低生产技术使用门槛,引导农场主参加职业教育,提升纯种植类农场纯技术效率,同时出台相关政策,实现土地流转的降费提效,改善种养兼休闲类农场规模效率。     

The impact of technical consultants on the quality of their clients' products: Evidence from the Bordeaux wine industry

Research summary : Recent research rooted in the resource‐based view of the firm suggests that resources are more likely to create value if they are effectively managed. An underlying assumption of the literature is that firms manage their resources on their own. However, many firms hire consultants to help them do so. In this study, I develop and test hypotheses regarding the impact of technical consultants on the quality of their clients' products. Using data from the Bordeaux wine industry, I find evidence that the use of technical consultants has a positive impact on relative product quality and a negative impact on the extremeness of relative product quality. Moreover, the positive impact of technical consultants on relative product quality is stronger at lower levels of relative resource quality. Managerial summary : Findings from a study in the Bordeaux wine industry indicate that the decision to hire consultants should depend on a firm's strategy. If a firm wants to improve its performance, it should hire consultants. Indeed, the “best practices” of technical consultants are generally more valuable than internally generated knowledge. If a firm wants to achieve outstanding performance, hiring consultants may not be the right decision. Because the “best practices” of technical consultants have more certain performance implications than internally generated knowledge, they decrease the likelihood of extremely low performance. However, their lack of uniqueness also decreases the likelihood of extremely high performance. Finally, the decision to hire consultants should depend on the quality of a firm's resources. Firms with low‐quality resources tend to benefit more from the “best practices” of technical consultants. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unpacking systemic innovation capacity as strategic ambidexterity: How projects dynamically configure capabilities for agricultural innovation

Problems in agriculture and land use are increasingly recognised as complex, uncertain, operating at multiple levels (field to global value chains) and involving social, economic, institutional, and technological change. This has implications for how projects navigate complexity to achieve impact. However, few studies have systematically evaluated how project actors engage with other actors to configure capabilities and resources across multiple levels in agricultural innovation systems (AIS), from the individual to the network, to mobilise and build systemic innovation capacity. An analytical framework conceptualising the nested configuration of capabilities at multiple levels in the AIS is applied to two projects that successfully tackled agricultural and land management problems of differing complexity: (i) improving lamb survival; and (ii) sustainable land management in New Zealand. Findings indicate that innovation capacity constitutes project actors interacting with other AIS actors to configure capabilities and resources at different levels of the AIS in order to leverage positive project path dependencies and break path dependencies that are created by existing and historical capability configurations. Project actors also balance exploiting existing innovation capabilities, as well as using adaptive capability for exploring and creating new capability configurations to respond to emerging circumstances. This implies that projects should have strategic ambidexterity in terms of how they combine exploiting existing and exploring new networks to access, combine, create, or disconnect certain capabilities to address ‘capability voids’ in AIS. This requires support to projects to constantly scrutinise, through reflexive monitoring by dedicated facilitators, specific agriculture and land use policies connected to major sustainable development models (e.g. climate smart agriculture, urban farming, smart farming). The can help assess whether the AIS provides the right mix of capabilities and whether this is adequately supported by innovation policy, to realize transformative policy objectives.     

A new professionalism for agricultural research for development

There have been repeated calls for a ‘new professionalism’ for carrying out agricultural research for development since the 1990s. At the centre of these calls is a recognition that for agricultural research to support the capacities required to face global patterns of change and their implications on rural livelihoods, requires a more systemic, learning focused and reflexive practice that bridges epistemologies and methodologies. In this paper, we share learning from efforts to mainstream such an approach through a large, multi-partner CGIAR research program working in aquatic agricultural systems. We reflect on four years of implementing research in development (RinD), the program’s approach to the new professionalism. We highlight successes and challenges and describe the key characteristics that define the approach. We conclude it is possible to build a program on a broader approach that embraces multidisciplinarity and engages with stakeholders in social-ecological systems. Our experience also suggests caution is required to ensure there is the time, space and appropriate evaluation methodologies in place to appreciate outcomes different to those to which conventional agricultural research aspires.     

安徽省土地承载力研究

为服务土地管理实践,从耕地人口承载力、建设用地人口承载力的角度研究了安徽省及各市县的土地承载力,还从生态环境承载量的角度研究了建设用地最大量。研究结果表明,安徽省建设用地还有很大挖潜空间。按人均100m2计算,安徽省及各市建设用地人口承载水平在20%~40%之间。多元回归结果表明,区域常住人口、土地总面积对建设用地人口承载水平的影响显著。但GDP、人均GDP和二三产业占比对建设用地人口承载力的影响不显著。利用GIS的研究表明,在扣除生态必需用地后,安徽省建设用地生态适宜量为36 847km2,超过目前的建设用地总面积。耕地人口承载力研究结果表明,安徽省目前的耕地面积能满足全省常住人口粮食需求,但各市县差别很大。若不提高单产,在耕地面积不断减少的情况下,安徽省到2020年可能会面临粮食缺口。